Sometimes, for some people, the smart thing isn’t to maximise the probability of success.Sometimes, it pays to do things that are more likely to fail – where you’ll probably lose ...
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TLDR: High-level thoughts. Less relevant to any specific decision, but more about the lenses through which we see the world, which can in turn inform our decisions.In the last year ...
The books above are fictional, in the sense that they don't exist. (The exception is Luck.) They represent collections of articles from this blog of the past couple of years, ...
Earlier this year, my wife and I had to make the difficult decision to put down one of our cats.His name was Ta’ke (Tucky). We loved him. He came into ...
In the world of finance, people love to talk about the hedonic treadmill. Reach a certain milestone – a level of income or wealth, a purchase you’ve had your heart ...
New Zealand has had a pretty good run in relation to COVID-19, especially compared with the rest of the world. After more than three months of being free of COVID-19 ...
[I wrote this article in early 2020, before COVID-19. I’ve reflected on my personal predictions and was surprised that COVID-19 hasn’t changed the big picture predictions I have for my ...
Low probability events shape our lives, more than you'd think.The probability of being born in the first place is infinitesimal. Every single person in your family tree, from your parents ...
Remember 2017? It feels like decades ago. There was a time in 2017 when we were wondering whether Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un of North Korea might go nuclear. We ...
Scarce things tend to be valuable.Sometimes there's no rational reason for this. As Robert Cialdini points out in Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, perceived scarcity has a whirr-click effect on ...
I think “risk management” just become sexy. My impression is that most people have been attracted to the blog by the “wealth” part of “wealth & risk”. But if you ...
I love books that swing for the fences. They almost always include things I disagree with. And they’re not the sort of books that will average 5 stars on Amazon. ...
Trying to predict the future is hard. And in some ways, it's impossible. But it's a valuable exercise. Because in "predicting" the future, we also increase the likelihood that we ...
As someone who wants to make better decisions, I’m enjoying the book Thinking in Bets: Making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts. It’s written by Annie Duke, who was ...
At the heart of luck is uncertainty. Uncertainty makes life interesting. Uncertainty can involve pitfalls, but it can also create opportunities. This book explores how to manage uncertainty – by ...