I’ll start this article with a prediction.
At some point in the future, the sharemarket will go down. It might go down in a big way.
Phew! I said it.
What exactly did I say?
But what did I say, exactly?
The sharemarket will go down. Which is a truism – it goes up and down all the time.
What didn’t I say?
It’s probably more revealing to ask: what didn’t I say?
I didn’t say when the sharemarket will go down.
“At some point in the future” is a statement that’s so general it’s almost useless. It could mean anything. The timing could be in the coming days, weeks, months, or years.
And what sort of downturn am I talking about? I’m not even making a firm statement about the scale of the downturn. It might go down in a big way. It might not, too. If the market goes down by 0.1% on a given day, I could probably say my prediction was correct.
But hand on heart – that’s as accurate a prediction as I can make. And I’d argue that it’s as accurate a prediction as anyone can make.