Tagged: prediction

My (in)efficient market hypothesis

One reason academically-inclined people give for investing in index-based funds is the “efficient-market hypothesis”. (Another is the empirical evidence that index-based funds tend to outperform actively managed funds, especially after fees, over the long-run....

Stop complicating your financial affairs!

There are a number of terrific, Kiwi-based, personal finance forums online. For some breadcrumbs, look for Facebook groups inspired by Mr Money Mustache or The Barefoot Investor; check out the Personal Finance NZ subreddit; or Sorted’s...

Are we on the road to ruin?

In this article, I use James Rickards’ book The Road to Ruin as a starting point for talking about predicting “The Future” (singular, rather than plural), “X risks” (or “existential” risks), and the challenges of trying to predict “worldwide financial meltdowns” (whatever that actually means).

Planning for a changing future

When we plan for the future, it’s easy to think that we’re planning for a future that’s similar to the present. But think about how much the world has changed in your own lifetime. Or in the past 50 or 100 years. What will happen in the next 20 or 50 years? This is the context in which we need to plan our long-term future.

Certainty and confidence

Human beings are attracted to certainty. We prefer a sure thing than a 99% likelihood. We respond to people who are certain – people who are often wrong and never in doubt. The challenge...