Tagged: uncertainty

Are we on the road to ruin?

In this article, I use James Rickards’ book The Road to Ruin as a starting point for talking about predicting “The Future” (singular, rather than plural), “X risks” (or “existential” risks), and the challenges of trying to predict “worldwide financial meltdowns” (whatever that actually means).

Certainty and confidence

Human beings are attracted to certainty. We prefer a sure thing than a 99% likelihood. We respond to people who are certain – people who are often wrong...